Tuesday, December 23, 2014

What Is Your Simple Chance At Being A Pro Athlete Or Ballet Dancer?

From the standpoint of any one player getting picked for one of the relatively very rare openings in pro sports, the odds are beyond slim.  If the odds of developing the high degree of specialized physical abilities are factored in, the odds get even more rare because while that level of ability would lower the ratio, they would also introduce much more rarity of occurrence in their own right.   Also, the NFL and MLB do a tremendous amount of international recruiting to gain the players they need, which further lowers the odds for American kids in sports.  In that regard sports and ballet are the same because American based ballet companies do extensive international recruiting which again further lowers the odds of success for American ballet students to become professional dancers.

Your simple chance of being a Pro Football player: 00.01%

Each NFL team is allowed to have 53 players on its roster (plus a five-player practice squad). As of 2011, the NFL has 32 teams, making a total of 1,696 players.

1,696 / 1,109,511 = .001528 or a 1/10 of 1% chance of getting a pro slot assuming everyone playing football met the pro standards, or a 99.85% of failure to get a pro slot.  This is also a roughly 1 chance in 100,000 vs the lifetime average of 1 in 3,000 of being hit by lighting.  

www.cnsnews.com › News
Cybercast News Service
Feb 2, 2014 - Even leaving aside the 1,531 girls who played high school football in the ... high school boys who played football  ... 1,109,511 high school students played football in 2008-2009

This also does not factor in the international recruiting most American football teams do, which further lowers the chances of success.

Your simple chance of being a Pro Baseball player: 00.0016%  (this is 1 one-hundredth of 1 percent chance!)

25-man, 40-man, and postseason rosters[edit] Each Major League Baseball team maintains both a 25-man roster and a 40-man roster of players. Players on the 25-man roster are eligible to play in official major league games throughout the season. At the moment, however, the two major leagues are each split into three divisions. In all, there are 30 teams in the two leagues: 15 in the older National League ("NL") and 15 in the American League ("AL").  30 x (25 + 40 = 65) = 1950

11.5 MILLION HS baseball players according to 

So that's 1950 / 11,500,000 = 0.00016957 or a 00.0016% chance also assuming every HS ball player was skilled enough to play pro ball, add in those odds and the chances do not improve but rather get even less likely.

This also does not factor in the extensive international recruiting most American baseball teams do, which further lowers the chances of success.

Your simple chance of being a Pro Ballet dancer: 12.00%

129 pro ballet companies; average company size is 30 dancers so 129 x 30 = 3870 positions
In Missouri there are 5 ballet studios with ability to educate dancers at a level to be professionals.  Assuming this is a reasonable average USA wide (some states will be bigger and some smaller than this) that gives us 250 ballet schools that could supply pro ballet dancers to the 129 pro ballet companies in the USA.  Average enrollment is approx. 120 students which makes 250 ballet studios x 120 students for a total pool of 30,000 potential pro ballet dancers.  3870 / 30,000 = 00.129 or a 12% chance at becoming a pro ballet dancer again assuming you are trained at one of these 250 ballet programs that train correctly.  

This also does not factor in the international recruiting most American ballet companies do which further lowers the chances of success.

Ballet, while also very hard to go pro in, has much better odds than pro sports!

Realistically the chances of going pro in sports are worse than your chances at being hit by lighting (which is itself only a 1 in 3,000 chance in your lifetime) and the small chances of being a professional ballet dancer, which does require years of dedication and training and is definitely very hard to attain, are actually at least two and in the case of baseball, FOUR orders of magnitude GREATER!

#ballet, #sports, #professional, #baseball, #football


No comments:

Post a Comment